Analysis: Madam President perhaps?


Last week was monumental for the politics and democracy of the United States. Firstly, the final farewell was given to the three-time heavyweight champion Muhammad Ali.

He was a man who stood by his principles despite criticism and hardship. Ali spoke out against racism, war and religious intolerance, while projecting an unshakeable confidence that became a model for all races at the height of the civil rights era and beyond.

It would not be wrong to say that he paved the way for the election of America’s first African-American President or perhaps the first female president.

Secondly, as the historic week ended so did the primaries for the nomination of the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate.

For the Democrats, it was evident from the get-go who is going to be the party nominee. But the credit goes to Bernie Sanders, the independent senator from Vermont who turned not only socialism a ‘buzz’ word in America but also defies electoral mathematics and refused to admit his electoral defeat and against the wishes of the Democratic establishment went all the way to California.

However, it’s certainly possible that Sanders single-handedly created a political mobilization which can take the U S of A into a new political understanding like of which Europe has seen over the years.

But at least Sanders has been successfully able to point out the inequality which exists in American society and brought the discussion into mainstream.

After winning the state of California and few other smaller states President Obama’s first secretary of state has secured a majority of the 4,765 delegates.

With that former first lady and the junior Senator from New York has seized history for herself by becoming the first women to claim the presidential nomination of a major political party in the history of the land of free.

Interestingly, Mrs Clinton spoke about her presumptive Democratic nomination eight years to the day after she ended her first failed White House run which was against current President Barak Obama, who by the way has now taken a rare step as a popular sitting president to endorse the presumptive Democratic candidate for the White House.

Hilary Clinton has come a long way from the early days of the campaign. Unlike, her husband former President Bill Clinton, she does not possess the Southern charm or as the NY Times puts it the ‘retail politics of her husband’.

Hilary is perhaps not as good orator as President Obama or other politicians, and she does not show emotions as often as other politicians show.

But despite all these shortcomings she has achieved the approval of almost over 15 million Democratic voters who have demonstrated their confidence in her abilities. Among these voters, she has able to inspired women, black and Hispanic voters, etc.

Mrs Clinton has shown resilience, durability, grit and capacity to overcome the political adversity. That is primary what a candidate required to deal with a person like Donald J. Trump.

But as the primaries have ended the real US presidential elections have just now started.

Moving forward, things are not going to be easy for Mrs Clinton and her people. As the experts in political science have mentioned that there are certain facts that follow the US presidential elections.

The first fact is the poll numbers which are being used to predict the mood of the American public.

These poll surveys are consisting of the economic situation, issues about the candidate and his or her policies. Up until now the performance of Hillary Clinton remained mix in these polls and survey.

Then there is Ray Fair model which again uses the economic factors like income growth and for the current elections it has favoured Republican candidate.

Similarly, earlier this column had mentioned that it’s tough in the US for a single party to hold the White House for three continuative terms.

In recent memory, it only happened twice once during Second World War when Franklin Roosevelt won the third term and after that twenty-eight years ago after Ronald Regan George H.W. Bush came into power for one term.

According to various reports, it is the biggest challenge Mrs Clinton has to face. Interestingly, one must also remember that most of these and other models have failed during primaries, particularly due to the anti-establishment nature of the current elections season.

However, the biggest advantage Mrs. Clinton enjoys is the Republican candidate Donald Trump. Perhaps it is the main reason why according to The Economist ‘given how spectacularly ill-chosen her Republican counterpart, Donald Trump, seems, the favourite to be America’s next president’. -Business Recorder

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