THE RUPEE: slight fluctuations likely


The rupee drifted lower against the dollar and euro during the week, ended on April 19, 2014.

INTER-BANK MARKET: The rupee lost nearly Rs 1.12 in relation to the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 97.30 and 97.35.

OPEN MARKET RATES: The rupee dropped by Rs 1.40 in terms of the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 99.40 and Rs 99.60 and the national currency was also down versus the euro, losing nearly Rs 3.00 for buying and selling at Rs 137.25 and Rs 137.50.

Commenting on the rupee’s movement in the currency market, some analyst said that the rupee appreciated by around 12 percent versus the dollar during the last five months, but in the closing sessions of last week, the rupee depreciated following the remarks by the Finance Minister, in which he said that the dollar would be kept around Rs 98 to support export sector, propelling importers to make forward buying of dollars.

Some experts said that the national currency may travel in a range of Rs 99-100 against the dollar in the open market in days to come. Chairman of Forex Association of Pakistan (FAP) said the dreams could not come true of decline in essential commodities. Earlier, it was highly anticipated that the dollar’s slide would help in bringing down the inflation rate.

An appreciation of 12 percent in the rupee value from Rs 108 to Rs 96 would be an unbearable loss for the exports sector. They further said that current account deficit has risen for the third quarter, and added that higher current account deficit would nullify the entire efforts to improve borrowing for reserves and stabilise the exchange rate regime. This trend could create problem as the government has been borrowing from international market to meet external obligations.

INTER-BANK MARKET RATES: On Monday, the rupee rose by 37 in terms of dollar for buying at Rs 96.18 and it also picked up 40 paisa for selling at Rs 96.20. On Tuesday, the rupee shed two paisa in terms of dollar for buying at Rs 96.20 and it also dropped five paisa for selling at Rs 96.25. On Wednesday, the rupee extended it’s slide against the dollar, losing 40 paisa for buying and selling at Rs 96.60 and Rs 96.65. On Thursday, the rupee picked up 20 paisa against the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 96.40 and Rs 96.45. On Friday, the rupee dipped versus the dollar, dropping 90 paisa for buying and selling at Rs 97.30 and Rs 97.35.

OPEN MARKET RATES: On April 14, the rupee followed the same pattern, gaining 20 paisa in relation to the dollar for buying at 98.00 and it also rose by 15 paisa for selling at Rs 98.25, the rupee recovered Rs 1.25 against the euro for buying and selling at Rs 134.25 and Rs 134.75.

On April 15, the rupee, however, gained 50 paisa in relation to the dollar for buying and selling at 97.50 and Rs 97.75, the rupee also recovered Re.one against the euro for buying and selling at Rs 133.25 and Rs 133.75.

On April 16, the rupee followed same trend, shedding 10 paisa in relation to the dollar for buying and selling at 97.60 and Rs 97.85, the rupee also lost Rs 1.50 against the euro for buying and selling at Rs 1334.75 and Rs 135.25.

On April 17, the rupee failed to sustain its it’s gain versus the dollar, losing 20 paisa for buying at Rs 97.80 and the national currency also shed 10 paisa for selling at Rs 97.95, the rupee, however, rose by 10 paisa against the euro for buying at Rs 134.65 and the single European currency gained 30 paisa for selling at Rs 134.95.

On April 18, the rupee followed suit in terms of the dollar, coming down sharply by Rs 1.40 for buying and selling at Rs 99.20 and Rs 99.40, the rupee also failed to come out of weak spell against the euro, lost heavily for buying and selling at Rs 136.50 and Rs 136.75.

On April 19, the rupee drifted lower in terms of the dollar, losing 20 paisa for buying and selling at Rs 99.40 and Rs 99.60. The rupee followed same path against the euro, dropping 75 paisa for buying and selling at Rs 137.25 and Rs 137.50.

OVERSEAS MARKET OUTLOOK FOR DOLLARS: In the first Asian trade, the euro got off to a shaky start after the European Central Bank fired another warning shot at bullish investors and arrested the single currency’s week-long surge, saying it will be forced to ease monetary policy further if the euro keeps going up.

In the clearest signal yet that he was unhappy with the direction of the currency, ECB President Mario Draghi on Saturday told a news conference that “a further strengthening of the exchange rate would require further stimulus.”

The dollar was trading against the Indian rupee at Rs 60.18, the US currency was at 3.2465 versus the Malaysian ringgit and the greenback was available at 6.211 in terms of the Chinese yuan.

In the second Asian trade, the dollar inched higher versus a basket of major currencies staying on firm footing after US retail sales data the previous day signalled a brighter outlook for the US economy. US retail sales recorded their largest gain in 1-1/2 years in March, the latest data to suggest growth was set to spring back in the second quarter after an unusually harsh winter. The dollar index edged up 0.1 percent to 79.791, holding above Monday’s intraday low of 79.562.

The dollar was trading against the Indian rupee at Rs 60.30, the greenback was at 3.2470 in terms of the Malaysian ringgit and the US currency was available at 6.221 against the Chinese yuan. Inter bank buy/sell rates for the taka against the dollar on Tuesday. 77.67-77.6725 (77.67-77.67). Call Money Rates: 06.75-08.25 percent (previous 05.00-08.50 percent).

In the third Asian trade, the dollar inched higher versus a basket of major currencies staying on firm footing after US retail sales data the previous day signalled a brighter outlook for the US economy. US retail sales recorded their largest gain in 1-1/2 years in March, the latest data to suggest growth was set to spring back in the second quarter after an unusually harsh winter. The dollar index edged up 0.1 percent to 79.791, holding above Monday’s intraday low of 79.562.

The dollar was trading against the Indian rupee at Rs 60.30, the greenback was at 3.2470 in terms of the Malaysian ringgit and the US currency was available at 6.221 against the Chinese yuan. Inter bank buy/sell rates for the taka against the dollar on Tuesday. 77.67-77.6725 (77.67-77.67). Call Money Rates: 06.75-08.25 percent (previous 05.00-08.50 percent).

In the fourth Asian trade, the yen wallowed at one-week lows against the dollar, having eased broadly overnight as a rally in global stocks dented demand for the safe-haven currency.

The dollar bought 102.22 yen after rising 0.3 percent on Wednesday, while the euro reached a two-week high of 141.77 yen before edging back to 141.22 yen.

The dollar was trading against the Indian rupee at Rs 60.35, the greenback was at 3.2410 in terms of the Malaysian ringgit and the US currency was at 6.2181 in relation to the Chinese yuan.

Inter bank buy/sell rates for the taka against the dollar on Thursday. 77.6550-77.6600 (77.66-77.67). Call Money Rates: 06.75-08.25 percent (previous 05.00-08.25 percent).

In the final session of Asia, the yen slipped to a 10-day low against the dollar on Friday after speculators unwound some safe-haven trades following encouraging US economic data and on hopes for a diplomatic initiative seeking an end to violence in Ukraine. The dollar traded at 102.39 yen, and has ticked up in the past five sessions from a three-week low of 101.32 yen. At the week-end, NY market was closed due to Good Friday.

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