Op-Ed | Political Crisis, Indian Threat and Pakistan’s Options
Entangled in a war of words, India already seems to be playing with its option menu. While retired Lt.Gen Panag talks of direct covert options and exposition of fault-lines in Baluchistan, Quetta, Shia, Economy (as if not applied already) their on-duty services chiefs set tone for a revitalized conflict in occupied Jammu and Kashmir.
Pakistan’s Hockey Team is being sent back, Pakistani traders were confined to their hotel rooms in Gujrat, Visa Policy is being delayed, Indian Air Chief, Army Chief, Opposition leaders and Social workers such as Anna Hazare continue to threat Pakistan in the back-drop of LoC skirmishes that have cost equal number of lives on both sides.
The only missing link is the decapitated head of the Indian soldier, and perhaps the ‘head’ of this whole tirade of aggression by India. Even PM Manmohan Singh has decided to end his silence saying, “Business Not as usual with Pakistan”.
Advocates of Aman ki Asha are shell shocked on the preposterous behavior of the Indian government, Media and Forces who seem united in their discourse against Pakistan over LOC incident Whereas Situation is diametrically opposite in Pakistan where government machinery has panicked due to back to back crisis.
Starting from Quetta blasts which killed near 100 people and protestors remained defiant until the imposition of governor rule then the on-going traumatic Long March in front of the Parliament led by Tahir-ul-Qadri and last but not the least, Supreme Court’s precision strike on PPP to arrest Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf on charges of corruption of a Rental project (already sparking protests in the strong holds of PPP in Interior Sindh) makes the whole political land scape bleak as ever.
Severe political fallout cannot be ruled out in coming days which caters very unfriendly implications for democratic system and peace and security situation in the country. Ironically, media and political parties are only focused on internal crisis instead of balancing the looming threats by Indian machinery that is capitalizing on the uncertainty of prevalent situation.
Noticing the Time-line of events in India, recent stance against Pakistan is one of the major diversions from the rape-crisis that has further ‘shined’ India internationally along with communal unrest in Hyderabad over Akbar Owaisi speech that was an outburst on marginalization of Muslim community in India, later riots in Dhule, Maharashtra that killed 5 Muslim by police firing, but apart from all internal setbacks there are some more long-term troubles that await Indian. It is viable to note some geo-political and regional developments in the context of this Indian posture and jingoistic trumpeting of war against Pakistan. In his recent negotiations with Karzai, President Obama has indicated speedy and complete withdrawal of his forces from Afghanistan, earlier than expected.
Af-Pak endgame is the major area of concern for Indian strategists who see complete pull-out of coalition forces and Taliban take-over as a disturbing situation for their investments in terms of economic and strategic out-reach in Afghanistan & covert actions in Baluchistan and FATA,. The Quetta & Sawat blasts that resulted in the ousting of the Baluchistan government and TTP’s truce offer in North Waziristan which was followed by a deadly IED blast that cost 14 Pak Army soldiers are all being seen as a continuation of Indian cold-start doctrine which is based on exploiting Pakistan’s fault-lines through sub-conventional warfare. Above all, the ghost of 1989 Uprising in Kashmir is on top of their mind as a counter-productive blowback for what they have been busy doing from Kandahar to Kunar as bases of ‘options’ against Pakistan.
Indian defense pundits are left in shock and awe on how things have dramatically changed in Af-Pak conflict since a few years, and on the fertile nature of Kashmir conflict which has seen the struggle powerfully infused in upcoming generations that have pelted-stones and reached out to the world on social-media for their cause of freedom; ready to pick up guns along smart-phones if need be.
Kashmir’s New Uprising remains an impeding threat with militancy possibly revived with complete force. Imperative to note that De facto border, LoC, is the flash point of any broader conflict where India has deployed its complete strength already in terms of personnel and defense technology needed to avert infiltrations by militants. Therefore, before things get worse and ripples of the Afghan fallout (victory of resistance, namely Taliban) start reaching beyond the LoC in the same manner that were seen Post USSR withdrawal, India has very less time to reassert and preempt.
India was irked on reports of Hurriyat’s secret meeting with the leadership of Muttahida Jihad Council – MJC, namely the nemesis Hafiz Saeed and Syed Salahuddin. Indian tabloids have also quoted the notion of ‘Revival of Jihad-e-Kashmir’ by Hafiz Saeed in alleged meeting with Farooq and Hurriyat delegation.
“The spill-over effect of US withdrawal would not be restricted only to Pakistan or Afghanistan but in India and Kashmir also,” – Said Mir Waiz Umer Farooq, in his talk with media in Pakistan.
Their on-going display of ‘canines’ is more of a Psy-Op ops against an expected and ‘written on the walls’ situation where India will display its mood in case Pakistan repeats the old formula, which is the prime fear of India. Unmistakably the epicenter of this on-going conflict is Srinagar, where millions have turned out time and again to register their dismay against the Indian Union and shown determination for their struggle for the freedom of Kashmir to be relentless and undaunted despite Indian claims. To subdue the spirit of resistance, India is trying out some suicidal options at the LoC, which can completely change the picture of South-Asia, and trigger Indian fears into genuine threats with no one else to blame but their senseless war cries. What is noteworthy is India already has exhausted all options after a decade of covert war against Pakistan, while the latter reserves every undisclosed option which involves every bit of un-tasted nuclear and tactical flavor, perhaps free home deliveries behind enemy lines as well.
On the other hand Pakistan has so far acted maturely by inviting UN for impartial investigation, which was refused by India. Pakistan’s strategic command remains committed to dialogue and peaceful solution of Kashmir by involving international community whereas India may be wrong in its assessment of Intimidation tactic which is bound to open extra-features, multiple options for Pakistan.
About Author: Founder Fortress Magazine, Investigative Journalist at PKKH – Tweets @Tabesch
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