Gas shortage to soar to 1512 mmcfd in 2012-13

The gas shortfall would worsen in the country in the next fiscal year when the projected gas deficit would increase on both supply systems, Sui Northern Gas Pipelines (SNGPL) and Sui Southern Gas Company (SSGC), to 1312 MMcfd and 200 MMcfd respectively, sources told Business Recorder.

Sources said that the issue of gas shortage was discussed at the recently held meeting of the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the Cabinet which was informed by the Petroleum Ministry that gas shortage on SNGPL system would escalate from 1,216 MMcfd in 2011-12 to 1,312 MMcfd. The meeting was informed that there would be a steady rise in gas shortages on both systems and, by 2014-15, shortage on SNGPL system would touch 2000 MMcfd and on SSGC to over 500 MMcfd by 2014-15.

They said that the demand-supply gap of gas in the country would increase to 2,395 MMcfd, in case Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project did not become operational by 2014. The demand-supply gap on SNGPL system, excluding imports, would increase to 1,872 MMcfd following a supply of 1,886 MMcfd against the demand of 3,758 MMcfd by the year of 2014-15. On SSGC system, gap in demand and supply would increase to 513 MMcfd as a result of 1,211 MMcfd supply against 1,536 MMcfd demand.

The meeting was informed that Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project aims to bring natural gas from Iran to Pakistan byDecember, 31 2014 and gas sale/purchase agreement has already been signed between Inter State Gas System (ISGS) and National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC). An official said that the meeting was informed that minimum gas supply volume, at Iran-Pakistan border, is 7.52 MMcmd for the first year and 13.98 MMcmd for the second year and 21.5 MMcfd from third year onward until the expiry of IP GSPA, 25 years from commencement date.

The delivery point for SSGC and SNGPL would be Nawabshah with the delivery pressure agreed in consultation with SSGC to be 12 psig. The meeting was informed that the IP gas pipeline appears to be the most feasible option compared to other options.